Watches, either tornado (red) or severe thunderstorm (blue), indicate that storms are likely to pose the highlighted threat. Severity is up from there, from short-lived in slight to more persistent in enhanced, long-lived in moderate, and exceptional in high. In a marginal risk, one might expect mostly non severe storms, with perhaps an isolated severe weather incident. Levels increase from there to “slight” (SLGT), then “enhanced” (ENH), to “moderate” (MDT), and finally “high” (HIGH).
Organized categorical risk of severe storms begins with “marginal” (MRGL). See also: Maximum tornado probabilities by month and yearĢ%, Marginal | 5%, Slight | 10%, Enhanced (hatch = EF2+ greater risk) | 15%, Moderate (as above) | 30%, Moderate (if no hatch) | 30%+, High (hatch = EF2+ greater risk)Ĭurrent outlook areas, radar, and convective watches T he following tornado probabilities correspond to each SPC storm risk category. If a hatched area is included in the image, which is only done with probabilities of 10 percent or higher, strong tornadoes are more of a concern than normal. The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. The key things to know from the experts, select images for more info at source Nav SPC tornado/severe risks | Satellite/surface observations | Key ingredients | General links | NWS office links | Warnings Tornado risk overview – Storm Prediction Center Forecast basics Identifying and understanding ingredients | Search for boundaries and gradients | Looking for what could go wrong :: Spotting basics Tornado shapes and sizes | Tornadic radar signatures
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